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Observations from Two Feet Away (Dec 29th) - And the Talk Begins

By Adam Knoll | December 29, 2009 at 05:25 PM EST | No Comments

I suppose it’s safe to say the season has started, which means the talking will start, which means people will hide behind anonymity to become Nostradamus. I will not make a speech on this, it should speak for itself.

We are Un-respected.

Note how I didn’t say disrespected; no, to be disrespected we have to prove to be of some sort of caliber first, only to be brushed aside, or not taken at our worth. We have yet to step on the field in a game yet, so we have no right to be disrespected. No, instead, we should be looking to gain respect throughout our first season. That is what expansion teams do.

Now, I’m not lamenting this, instead I am just merely noting an occurrence, one that will surely continue as the season gets closer. A good chunk of our roster left the leagues founding franchise, feelings were hurt, egos were damaged and the mistakes of last season left wounds deep and they still smart. It’s no secret that we are hunted in some areas of the league, and will be throughout this season, and maybe others. This game, the one in week 6, has been whispered and talked about since the end of the season last August, it may be the most looked forward to game of the entire season, damn the records.

Yet, we aren’t the only team facing this scenario. The Scorpions (and to a lesser extent, the Warriors) are cut offs from the Gators, and those games will be looked at closely. The Premier is a direct branch from the Lynx, and that game will be nothing short of enticing come that part of the schedule. This league has no shortage of rivalries, and unlike other leagues like ours, the true rivalries started in the first season and run very deep. We don’t get paid for what we do; instead, we stand up after each game and judge ourselves by a final score. This creates vicious rivalries which lay claim to bragging rights for an entire year.

Being a new franchise, we don’t have the bloodline rivals that all of the founding teams do. Yet we do sport a couple, namely one with the Sabers, and another that has to do with proximity and conference, the Nighthawks. Sure, the rest of the conference are ‘rivals’ in that we are directly competing with them for the playoffs, yet these two teams will have that extra edge that most wont.

It should be an exciting year to say the least, and although week 6 won’t be the final game of the year, nor the championship game, it may sure feel like it.

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Observations from Two Feet Away (Dec 29th) - And the Talk Begins

By Adam Knoll | December 29, 2009 at 05:25 PM EST | No Comments

I suppose it’s safe to say the season has started, which means the talking will start, which means people will hide behind anonymity to become Nostradamus. I will not make a speech on this, it should speak for itself.

We are Un-respected.

Note how I didn’t say disrespected; no, to be disrespected we have to prove to be of some sort of caliber first, only to be brushed aside, or not taken at our worth. We have yet to step on the field in a game yet, so we have no right to be disrespected. No, instead, we should be looking to gain respect throughout our first season. That is what expansion teams do.

Now, I’m not lamenting this, instead I am just merely noting an occurrence, one that will surely continue as the season gets closer. A good chunk of our roster left the leagues founding franchise, feelings were hurt, egos were damaged and the mistakes of last season left wounds deep and they still smart. It’s no secret that we are hunted in some areas of the league, and will be throughout this season, and maybe others. This game, the one in week 6, has been whispered and talked about since the end of the season last August, it may be the most looked forward to game of the entire season, damn the records.

Yet, we aren’t the only team facing this scenario. The Scorpions (and to a lesser extent, the Warriors) are cut offs from the Gators, and those games will be looked at closely. The Premier is a direct branch from the Lynx, and that game will be nothing short of enticing come that part of the schedule. This league has no shortage of rivalries, and unlike other leagues like ours, the true rivalries started in the first season and run very deep. We don’t get paid for what we do; instead, we stand up after each game and judge ourselves by a final score. This creates vicious rivalries which lay claim to bragging rights for an entire year.

Being a new franchise, we don’t have the bloodline rivals that all of the founding teams do. Yet we do sport a couple, namely one with the Sabers, and another that has to do with proximity and conference, the Nighthawks. Sure, the rest of the conference are ‘rivals’ in that we are directly competing with them for the playoffs, yet these two teams will have that extra edge that most wont.

It should be an exciting year to say the least, and although week 6 won’t be the final game of the year, nor the championship game, it may sure feel like it.

GFL - The 2010 GFL Schedule, Completely Broken Down

By Adam Knoll | December 18, 2009 at 08:55 PM EST | No Comments

Lynx                       Rage                      Cowboys             Heat                      Cougars                Gladiators          

(34-26)                  (32-28)                  (27-23)                  (44-36)                  (41-29)                  (36-24) 

Wolves (-)           Warriors (-)         Nighthawks (3) Premier (-)            Phoenix (-)          Gators (4)

Premier (-)           Gladiators (4)     Wolves (-)          Sabers (3)             Nighthawks (3)  Rage (8)

Phoenix (-)          Heat (6)                Cougars (6)         Rage (8)                Cowboys (7)       Warriors (-)

Cowboys (7)       Gators (4)            Lynx (9)                Scorpions (-)       Wolves (-)            Sabers (3)

Heat (6)                Phoenix (-)          Scorpions (-)       Lynx (9)                Gators (4)             Premier (-)

Gladiators(4)      Premier(-)          Warriors (-)          Cougars (6)          Heat (6)                Lynx (9)

Warriors (-)         Cougars (6)         Heat (6)               Cowboys (7)        Rage (8)               Phoenix (-)

Cougars (6)         Scorpions (-)      Sabers (3)            Gladiators (4)      Lynx (9)                Heat (6)

Nighthawks (3) Sabers (3)            Premier(-)          Warriors (3)          Gladiators (4)    Cougars (6)

Rage (8)               Lynx (9)                Phoenix (-)          Gators (4)             Premier (-)          Scorpions (-)

(34)                        (32)                        (27)                       (44)                        (41)                        (36)

(5)                          (4)                           (3)                          (5)                          (5)                          (4)

(16)                        (16)                        (20)                        (8)                          (12)                        (16)

(1)                          (1)                           (-)                           (2)                          (2)                          (1)

(56)                        (53)                        (50)                        (59)                        (60)                        (57)

 Nighthawks        Warriors              Premier               Gators                   Phoenix               Scorpions

(29-21)                  (44-36)                  (43-27)              (30-20)                  (44-36)                  (35-35) 

Cowboys (7)       Rage (8)               Heat (6)              Gladiators (4)      Cougars (6)         Sabers (3)

Cougars (6)         Scorpions (-)       Lynx (9)               Phoenix (-)           Gators (4)            Warriors (-)

Premier (-)          Gladiators (4)      Nighthawks (3) Sabers (3)            Lynx (9)               Wolves (-)

Warriors (-)         Nighthawks (3)  Phoenix(-)           Rage (8)               Premier(-)           Heat (6)

Sabers (3)            Wolves (-)           Gladiators (4)    Cougars (6)         Rage (8)               Cowboys (7)

Scorpions (-)      Cowboys (7)         Rage (8)              Wolves (-)           Sabers (3)            Nighthawks (3)

Gators (4)            Lynx (9)                 Scorpions (-)      Nighthawks (3) Gladiators (4)      Premier (-)

Phoenix (-)          Gators (4)             Wolves (-)           Warriors (-)         Nighthawks (3)  Rage (8)

Lynx (9)                Heat (6)                Cowboys (7)       Scorpions (-)      Wolves (-)            Gators (4)

Wolves (-)           Sabers (3)            Cougars (6)         Heat (6)                Cowboys (7)       Gladiators (4)

(29)                        (44)                        (43)                        (30)                        (44)                        (35)

(3)                          (5)                            (5)                          (4)                          (5)                          (4)

(20)                        (8)                          (12)                        (16)                        (8)                          (12)

(2)                          (2)                           (2)                           (-)                           (2)                          (-)

(54)                        (59)                        (62)                        (50)                        (59)                        (51)

 Wolves                 Sabers

(32-28)                  (32-28)

Lynx (9)                Scorpions (-)

Cowboys (7)       Heat (6)

Scorpions (-)      Gators (4)

Cougars (6)         Gladiators (4)

Warriors (-)         Nighthawks (3)

Gators (4)            Phoenix (-)

Sabers (3)            Wolves (-)

Premier(-)            Cowboys (7)

Phoenix (-)            Rage (8)

Nighthawks (3)   Warriors (-)

(32)                          (32)

(3)                            (3)

(16)                         (16)

(2)                            (1)

(53)                         (52)

Unadjusted                        Expansion                           Playoffs                               Championship                 

Phoenix                 (44)        Phoenix              (2)          Phoenix              (5)          Phoenix                (2)

Heat                      (44)        Heat                     (2)          Heat                    (5)          Heat                      (2)

Warriors               (44)        Warriors             (2)          Warriors             (5)          Warriors               (2)

Premier                (43)        Premier               (3)          Premier               (5)          Premier                (2)

Cougars                (41)        Cougars              (3)          Cougars               (5)          Cougars                (2)

Gladiators           (36)        Scorpions            (3)          Lynx                      (5)          Wolves                 (2)

Scorpions            (35)        Gladiators           (4)          Scorpions            (4)          Nighthawks        (2)

Lynx                       (34)        Lynx                     (4)          Gladiators           (4)          Lynx                       (1)

Rage                      (32)        Rage                    (4)          Rage                    (4)          Rage                      (1)

Sabers                  (32)        Sabers                 (4)          Gators                  (4)          Gladiators           (1)

Wolves                 (32)        Wolves               (4)          Sabers                 (3)          Sabers                  (1)

Gators                  (30)        Gators                  (4)          Wolves               (3)          Cowboys              (1)

Nighthawks        (29)        Nighthawks       (5)          Nighthawks        (3)          Scorpions            (1)

Cowboys             (27)        Cowboys             (5)          Cowboys             (3)          Gators                   (-)

Home/Away                      Pre-Season Adjusted     2010 Final                            2010 Adjusted                  

                                                Premier                (62)

                                                Cougars                (60)

                                                Phoenix                (59)

                                                Heat                      (59)

                                                Warriors               (59)

                                                Gladiators           (57)

                                                Lynx                       (56)

                                                Nighthawks        (54)

                                                Rage                      (53)

                                                Wolves                 (53)

                                                Sabers                  (52)

                                                Scorpions            (52)

                                                Cowboys             (51)

                                                Gators                  (50)

Okay, this may be the largest post I put up perhaps this year, and there is a reason for it. Above there are 14 schedules for 14 teams, and a buch of numbers you have no idea what they mean or what they purtain to. Allow me to explain:

Last season, around February, I got my hands on the season schedule, and on an off day of mine (like today, actually) I sat down and devised a formula for figuring out who had the hardest schedule in the league. The higher the number was the harder the schedule. It only had about 2-3 different aspect to it, so it wasnt very broad. This seasons was much more forfilling.

Last season, the hardest schedules went to the Gladiators and the Mustangs (now Nighthawks), while the easiest schedules went to the Rnegades (which is interesting) the Lynx and the Heat. However, that version was severly hampered by a few things:

-          In a 10 team league, With 10 total games, everybody played everyone else. So, in reality, if I went by opponents records from the year before, well, no one would have had it any harder, or easier. The only discrepancy between teams was who they played twice that season (in week 1 and in week 10). So in essence, the Gladiators had the harder schedule because, well, they played the Lynx twice, and the Mustangs had the second hardest because they played the Heat twice (both were Championship teams the year before).  So, it really depended on who you started and ended with

-          However, a few little categories were able to be made. I gave each away game an extra point due to away games being harder, and the reason why that worked is because some teams had 4 Home games, while others had 6 Home games. So that changed the math a little. Also,  I observed that since the four expansion teams had not played a game, they would only receive one point as a team, and another if the game was away. So if a team played 3 away games vs new teams that was 6 points (3 for the teams, and 3 because they were away), and another team only played 2 expansion teams away, that was 4, it made the numbers a little less stagnant

-          Yet no matter how you split it, the results came out wildly close, being that the schedule were essentially the exact same except for who you played in week 10. Yet, when you look at how it came out, and the results of the season, one can see that the formula worked, with one very notable exception (The Renegades, yet they were perhaps the most injury riddled team last year. Also, along with that, thier 2-time team was the Rage, and that proves my point that expansion teams are tricky.)

-          Lynx (2nd Easiest – Went 9-1, really didn’t have trouble until late in the season)

-          Heat (Tied for 2nd Easiest, Went 5-1 before injuries stole their momentum, that and the hard part of the schedule came about in the Cowboys and Rage)

-          Gladiators (Hardest Schedule – Went 0-5 to begin the year, entered a bit of an easier part of the schedule, won a few games, used that momentum to shock the Cougars, and got to 4-6)

-          Mustangs (Started 3-2, yet ran into the hard part of their schedule and suffered from there)

So, emboldened by those outcomes, the new year comes about and I went at it again. Only this time, I have 14 teams to play with (wildly different schedules), more expansion fun, and added to the formula throughout. So, without delay, here is the formula, step by step:

-          Each schedule was taken, and then their opponents wins from last season was set next to it. For Expansion teams, this number was set to 0, and I’ll explain where their number came from next. After totaling up the win total, I would get that teams Unadjusted Schedule difficulty (first Bold number), based solely on opponents with records from last year. Many people say this is the best way to do it, yet I tend to think differently about that (second Bold number is the Adjusted Number). For one, not every team plays the same amount of expansion teams. The least played by any team is 2, while the highest is 5(!). So naturally, a team with 5 expansions on their roster would have a lower number, but not necessarily an easier schedule. That’s where step two comes in.

-          Last season, we had 4 expansion teams, and their records were 3-7,4-6,4-6 and 8-2. My last season formula was off primarily because nobody truly knows how good an new team will be. So, to combat this, I took the most common win number from the 2009 expansion teams, and used that (4). Naturally, come seasons end, some may have more wins, some sadly less, yet I think that 4 is a good baseline and a wise average to use (in Blue).

-          Another Formula addition is an extra point was given to each team that made the playoffs last year. Why that happened was basically because of the Gladiator/Gator equation I ran into. The Gladiators made the playoffs, the Gators didn’t, yet they both had 4 wins and in my formula, they would both equal the same. Yet, for some reason, it just seemed wrong to not hold a playoff team in higher standard, so that’s the reason for the extra point all the way around (in Green).

-          The next piece of the equation was the Championship teams, which were the best teams last year. If you have one of them on your schedule, that’s an extra point, each (in Red).

-          The last one, which I won’t be able to finalize until the schedule itself it done, is the Home and Away part of the difficulty rating. Last year, I gave just 1 point for each away game and left it at that, however, that was when not everybody had 5 away games. This season looks to be pretty even, so the Home/Away quotient will be different. It will still be 1 point each, but each game that is played away in a row will result in an extra point, because long absences from home can be more difficult. So if Team A plays 3 games away in a row, the first one will be worth 1 point, the second week 2 points, and the final week 3 points. The reason for this is because we have some DRIVES coming up this year (if a Milwaukee team has to travel to Lake County, isn’t that a stressful situation?), so a team should be noted of that in the strength of schedule.

So, while the tally is almost complete, we will have to wait till the Home/Away sched pops out to have the final pre-season tally. After the season, I will change it all around using everyones 2010 records, and find out what the true strength of schedule was. Just to see how close I am.

For you formula guys out there, here it is (minus Home/Away)

(2009 W's) + (Playoff teams) + (Expansion Teams x 4) + (Championship Teams) = 2010 initial Strength of Schedule

The higher the number, the harder the Schedule, so there.

Without further explanation, here are my findings (hardest to easiest):

The Premier (62):

                Fox Valley is an Expansion cut from the Lynx, and they get hit right away; the Heat and Lynx 1-2 punch will indoctrinate them into the league well. The Premier has 5 games against playoff teams from last season, and 3 games against new teams. They play both the Lynx and Cowboys during the season.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                Even though the Heat/Lynx start is fun, the 2nd half of the season has the Rage, Cougars and Cowboys is store. Finishing strong is everything in this league, and the final two weeks will decide a lot

The Cougars (60):

                Last season’s comeback team finds itself in a rough spot schedule wise. Their first half of the year isn’t bad at all, yet the second half becomes tricky. The Cougars have 5 games against playoff teams and 3 games against expansion clubs

Hardest stretch of the season:

                As soon as the second half of the season rears its head, it’s make or break time. The Heat,  rage, Lynx and Gladiators, all in a row, will provide a trying end of the season schedule.

The Phoenix (59):

                The Cougars begin the season, the Cowboys end it, what happens in the middle is where the season will be won, or lost. However, the middle is where things really get tough. The Phoenix play 5 games against playoff teams, and only 2 new squads.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Phoenix have the Lynx in Week 3, the sudo Lynx (Premier) in Week 4, and the Rage in Week 5. THEN they play the game everyone seems to be waiting for in week 6 against the Sabers. Luckily, there is a bye week after that.

The Heat (59):

                The Heat will again need to get off to a good start, as the middle of the schedule could end their chances early in they don’t do well in their first two weeks. The Heat plays 5 playoff teams, and 2 new teams

Hardest stretch of the season:

                Rage in Week 3, then the Scorpions, who could be anything, expansion teams are murky. Then, week 5 brings the Lynx, Cougars, Cowboys and Gladiators all in a row

The Warriors (59):

                The Warriors will welcome their first season by saying hello to…the Rage. Welcome to the GFL.  After that they will have to devise a winning streak to keep up with the second half of their year. The Warriors will play 5 playoff teams, and 2 new squads.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Warriors schedule is sneaky in it’s strength, not really seeming all that bad. Yet a Cowboys, Lynx, Gators, Heat, Sabers final 5 could really knock them out if they aren’t careful.

The Gladiators (57):

                The Gladiators are like so many other teams who will have to make something out of an easier first than second half schedule. The only big name in the first 5 games is the Rage, in week 2, followed by the Sabers, in week 4. The Gladiators will play 4 playoff teams, and 4 new teams.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                So many stretches involve the Lynx, but that’s just how good they are. Starting in week 6, their schedule takes a turn with the Lynx, Phoenix, Heat and Cougars in a row, finishing up with the Scorpions

The Lynx (56):

                Almost laughing at the Lynx’s schedule early on (really, the Champs get three expansion teams in a row?), one would have to tip their hat to the schedule makers for turning the rest of the schedule into a much harder affair. 5 games against playoff teams, 4 against expansion clubs

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Cowboys, Heat and Gladiators will make up Weeks 3-5, and the Cougars, Nighthawks and Rage will finish out their schedule.

The Nighthawks (54):

                The Nighthawks early schedule is their only real difficult stretch, managing to only play 3 2009 playoff teams and 5 expansion clubs.  5 of their last 8 games are against new squads.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                Cowboys, Cougars, Premier; Weeks 1-3. After that, if they get through even with one win, they should have a say in the playoff race.

The Rage (53):

                The Rage, much like the Nighthawks, manage to miss prolonged stretches of difficulty, at least when compared to 2009 numbers. The week 3 matchup with the Heat will be a rematch of last seasons fight for first in their division, yet the early schedule should provide them with a winning record. The Rage has 4 games against playoff teams, 4 against new teams.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Cougars come calling in week 7, followed by the Scorpions, Sabers and Lynx. The game vs the Lynx could be plainly for playoff seating.

The Wolves (53):

                The Wolves, much like the Warriors, get their first game as a franchise against…the Lynx. And for an encore, the Cowboys! However, unlike the Warriors, the schedule lets up considerably after that.  The Wolves get 3 games against playoff squads, and 4 against fellow expansion clubs.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Lynx and Cowboys…yeah. There is a spot in the 2nd half against the Gators, Sabers and Premier, but nothing comes close to the first two games.

The Sabers (52):

                An early game against the Heat (week 2), followed by the Gators and Gladiators makes for an interesting stretch, but not exactly murderers row. The Sabers play three 2009 playoff teams and 4 expansion teams

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Cowboys and the Rage in weeks 8 and 9 make for a nasty little end of the year trial, it’s bookended by games with the Warriors and Wolves.

The Scorpions (51):

                The Scorpions will be welcomed into the league by the GFL’s founding franchise, and then the Scorpions destiny is in their hands. Two straight games against fellow expansion teams leaves the Scorpions as an enigma. The Scorpions play 4 playoff teams, 3 expansion teams, and don’t play either the Lynx or Cowboys

Hardest stretch of the season:

                Heat, Cowboys, Nighthawks, Premier and the Rage, starting in week 4.  The Gators and Gladiators after that could decide whether they make it to the playoffs or not.

The Cowboys (51):

                Seeing the 20092nd place squad here was not a joyful occurance, but sometimes that’s how it goes. By the end of Week 4, as long as they are 2-2, they could easily be a high playoff seed. The Cowboys play three 2009 playoff teams, and 5 expansion teams

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Cougars in Week 3 followed by the Lynx in Week 4. Two games against new franchises later they play the Heat.

The Gators (50):

                The only team to play neither the Lynx or Cowboys may have a great chance at making the playoffs, as long as they just take care of business. There is a minor rough patch in the middle of the year, yet throughout, it never gets overwhelming. The Gators play 4 playoff teams, and 4 new squads.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Sabers in week 3 starts off the mini-bulge, with games vs. the Rage and Cougars after that. Even if the Gators are 2-3 after that, the 2nd half of the schedule is ripe.

As I said before, this list is without the Home/Away schedule, which may change things more drastically than many would realize. Also, this will be compared to how the season plays out, as I will at the end of the year redo everything with 2010 info and see how the predictions work out.

When the Home/Away schedule comes out, there will be an update

Observations from Two Feet Away - Initial Schedule

By Adam Knoll | December 18, 2009 at 12:35 PM EST | No Comments

Okay, so it’s that time that I personally have been waiting for, the schedule to come out and to see exactly who we will be playing, and where. Home/Away doesn’t matter as much to me (travel excluded), because sometimes it’s not who you play, but when you play them.

Having two byes this season will eliminate a lot of stretches of utter devastation. The longest stretch is four games in a row, split by the July 4th holiday. For those of you who haven’t seen the schedule, I’ll put it up dor you:

Cougars

Gators

(bye)

Lynx

Premier

Rage

Sabers

(bye)

Gladiators

Nighthawks

Wolves

Cowboys

There ya go. When looking at the schedule, a few things immediately come to mind:

-          The middle portion of the schedule is a killer. The two top seeds from last year’s season (Lynx and Rage) and the Premier, basically the Lynx 1.1. All that before we get to a matchup with our old friends the Sabers (Storm), who get the advantage of playing us right after that gauntlet. In the Lynx-Premier-Rage corollary, if 2 or more of those end up being away, that’s a lot of driving. We will see how that goes.

-          We start the season by playing the Cougars, who are always dangerous. The Gators were much improved towards the end of last season, and it would figure to be the same again. Seeing as how the middle part of the schedule rounded out, it’s imperative that we start fast, or at least, not have trouble out of the gate.

-          There are 8 playoff teams this year, so more than half the league will make it, however, getting the Cowboys on the last day will judge a lot of things come next August. The Gladiators (Strong Defense), the Nighthawks (Wide spread offense) and the Wolves (an enigma) figure to give the last portion of the schedule a little spice.

-          As I theorized last month, I thought we would end up with the Sabers, Gladiators, Heat and Scorpions on our schedule, based on proximity. I went 2/4, as the Rage and the Gators made our schedule over the Heat and the Scorpions. With the Rage being 8-2 and the Gators being 4-6 last year, it would appear that the schedule is a little more on the difficult side than having a 6-4 Heat team and a fellow expansion team. However, nothing will be known for sure until the season starts and teams start unfolding.

-          We play our non-conference games in a huge bunch in the middle of the season. In a 6 week period, we play all of the 4 teams not in our conference, leaving pockets of Conference play that could really make or break us. The last three games on the schedule will be huge as the playoffs will then be in sight.

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Observations from Two Feet Away (Dec 29th) - And the Talk Begins

By Adam Knoll | December 29, 2009 at 05:25 PM EST | No Comments

I suppose it’s safe to say the season has started, which means the talking will start, which means people will hide behind anonymity to become Nostradamus. I will not make a speech on this, it should speak for itself.

We are Un-respected.

Note how I didn’t say disrespected; no, to be disrespected we have to prove to be of some sort of caliber first, only to be brushed aside, or not taken at our worth. We have yet to step on the field in a game yet, so we have no right to be disrespected. No, instead, we should be looking to gain respect throughout our first season. That is what expansion teams do.

Now, I’m not lamenting this, instead I am just merely noting an occurrence, one that will surely continue as the season gets closer. A good chunk of our roster left the leagues founding franchise, feelings were hurt, egos were damaged and the mistakes of last season left wounds deep and they still smart. It’s no secret that we are hunted in some areas of the league, and will be throughout this season, and maybe others. This game, the one in week 6, has been whispered and talked about since the end of the season last August, it may be the most looked forward to game of the entire season, damn the records.

Yet, we aren’t the only team facing this scenario. The Scorpions (and to a lesser extent, the Warriors) are cut offs from the Gators, and those games will be looked at closely. The Premier is a direct branch from the Lynx, and that game will be nothing short of enticing come that part of the schedule. This league has no shortage of rivalries, and unlike other leagues like ours, the true rivalries started in the first season and run very deep. We don’t get paid for what we do; instead, we stand up after each game and judge ourselves by a final score. This creates vicious rivalries which lay claim to bragging rights for an entire year.

Being a new franchise, we don’t have the bloodline rivals that all of the founding teams do. Yet we do sport a couple, namely one with the Sabers, and another that has to do with proximity and conference, the Nighthawks. Sure, the rest of the conference are ‘rivals’ in that we are directly competing with them for the playoffs, yet these two teams will have that extra edge that most wont.

It should be an exciting year to say the least, and although week 6 won’t be the final game of the year, nor the championship game, it may sure feel like it.

GFL - The 2010 GFL Schedule, Completely Broken Down

By Adam Knoll | December 18, 2009 at 08:55 PM EST | No Comments

Lynx                       Rage                      Cowboys             Heat                      Cougars                Gladiators          

(34-26)                  (32-28)                  (27-23)                  (44-36)                  (41-29)                  (36-24) 

Wolves (-)           Warriors (-)         Nighthawks (3) Premier (-)            Phoenix (-)          Gators (4)

Premier (-)           Gladiators (4)     Wolves (-)          Sabers (3)             Nighthawks (3)  Rage (8)

Phoenix (-)          Heat (6)                Cougars (6)         Rage (8)                Cowboys (7)       Warriors (-)

Cowboys (7)       Gators (4)            Lynx (9)                Scorpions (-)       Wolves (-)            Sabers (3)

Heat (6)                Phoenix (-)          Scorpions (-)       Lynx (9)                Gators (4)             Premier (-)

Gladiators(4)      Premier(-)          Warriors (-)          Cougars (6)          Heat (6)                Lynx (9)

Warriors (-)         Cougars (6)         Heat (6)               Cowboys (7)        Rage (8)               Phoenix (-)

Cougars (6)         Scorpions (-)      Sabers (3)            Gladiators (4)      Lynx (9)                Heat (6)

Nighthawks (3) Sabers (3)            Premier(-)          Warriors (3)          Gladiators (4)    Cougars (6)

Rage (8)               Lynx (9)                Phoenix (-)          Gators (4)             Premier (-)          Scorpions (-)

(34)                        (32)                        (27)                       (44)                        (41)                        (36)

(5)                          (4)                           (3)                          (5)                          (5)                          (4)

(16)                        (16)                        (20)                        (8)                          (12)                        (16)

(1)                          (1)                           (-)                           (2)                          (2)                          (1)

(56)                        (53)                        (50)                        (59)                        (60)                        (57)

 Nighthawks        Warriors              Premier               Gators                   Phoenix               Scorpions

(29-21)                  (44-36)                  (43-27)              (30-20)                  (44-36)                  (35-35) 

Cowboys (7)       Rage (8)               Heat (6)              Gladiators (4)      Cougars (6)         Sabers (3)

Cougars (6)         Scorpions (-)       Lynx (9)               Phoenix (-)           Gators (4)            Warriors (-)

Premier (-)          Gladiators (4)      Nighthawks (3) Sabers (3)            Lynx (9)               Wolves (-)

Warriors (-)         Nighthawks (3)  Phoenix(-)           Rage (8)               Premier(-)           Heat (6)

Sabers (3)            Wolves (-)           Gladiators (4)    Cougars (6)         Rage (8)               Cowboys (7)

Scorpions (-)      Cowboys (7)         Rage (8)              Wolves (-)           Sabers (3)            Nighthawks (3)

Gators (4)            Lynx (9)                 Scorpions (-)      Nighthawks (3) Gladiators (4)      Premier (-)

Phoenix (-)          Gators (4)             Wolves (-)           Warriors (-)         Nighthawks (3)  Rage (8)

Lynx (9)                Heat (6)                Cowboys (7)       Scorpions (-)      Wolves (-)            Gators (4)

Wolves (-)           Sabers (3)            Cougars (6)         Heat (6)                Cowboys (7)       Gladiators (4)

(29)                        (44)                        (43)                        (30)                        (44)                        (35)

(3)                          (5)                            (5)                          (4)                          (5)                          (4)

(20)                        (8)                          (12)                        (16)                        (8)                          (12)

(2)                          (2)                           (2)                           (-)                           (2)                          (-)

(54)                        (59)                        (62)                        (50)                        (59)                        (51)

 Wolves                 Sabers

(32-28)                  (32-28)

Lynx (9)                Scorpions (-)

Cowboys (7)       Heat (6)

Scorpions (-)      Gators (4)

Cougars (6)         Gladiators (4)

Warriors (-)         Nighthawks (3)

Gators (4)            Phoenix (-)

Sabers (3)            Wolves (-)

Premier(-)            Cowboys (7)

Phoenix (-)            Rage (8)

Nighthawks (3)   Warriors (-)

(32)                          (32)

(3)                            (3)

(16)                         (16)

(2)                            (1)

(53)                         (52)

Unadjusted                        Expansion                           Playoffs                               Championship                 

Phoenix                 (44)        Phoenix              (2)          Phoenix              (5)          Phoenix                (2)

Heat                      (44)        Heat                     (2)          Heat                    (5)          Heat                      (2)

Warriors               (44)        Warriors             (2)          Warriors             (5)          Warriors               (2)

Premier                (43)        Premier               (3)          Premier               (5)          Premier                (2)

Cougars                (41)        Cougars              (3)          Cougars               (5)          Cougars                (2)

Gladiators           (36)        Scorpions            (3)          Lynx                      (5)          Wolves                 (2)

Scorpions            (35)        Gladiators           (4)          Scorpions            (4)          Nighthawks        (2)

Lynx                       (34)        Lynx                     (4)          Gladiators           (4)          Lynx                       (1)

Rage                      (32)        Rage                    (4)          Rage                    (4)          Rage                      (1)

Sabers                  (32)        Sabers                 (4)          Gators                  (4)          Gladiators           (1)

Wolves                 (32)        Wolves               (4)          Sabers                 (3)          Sabers                  (1)

Gators                  (30)        Gators                  (4)          Wolves               (3)          Cowboys              (1)

Nighthawks        (29)        Nighthawks       (5)          Nighthawks        (3)          Scorpions            (1)

Cowboys             (27)        Cowboys             (5)          Cowboys             (3)          Gators                   (-)

Home/Away                      Pre-Season Adjusted     2010 Final                            2010 Adjusted                  

                                                Premier                (62)

                                                Cougars                (60)

                                                Phoenix                (59)

                                                Heat                      (59)

                                                Warriors               (59)

                                                Gladiators           (57)

                                                Lynx                       (56)

                                                Nighthawks        (54)

                                                Rage                      (53)

                                                Wolves                 (53)

                                                Sabers                  (52)

                                                Scorpions            (52)

                                                Cowboys             (51)

                                                Gators                  (50)

Okay, this may be the largest post I put up perhaps this year, and there is a reason for it. Above there are 14 schedules for 14 teams, and a buch of numbers you have no idea what they mean or what they purtain to. Allow me to explain:

Last season, around February, I got my hands on the season schedule, and on an off day of mine (like today, actually) I sat down and devised a formula for figuring out who had the hardest schedule in the league. The higher the number was the harder the schedule. It only had about 2-3 different aspect to it, so it wasnt very broad. This seasons was much more forfilling.

Last season, the hardest schedules went to the Gladiators and the Mustangs (now Nighthawks), while the easiest schedules went to the Rnegades (which is interesting) the Lynx and the Heat. However, that version was severly hampered by a few things:

-          In a 10 team league, With 10 total games, everybody played everyone else. So, in reality, if I went by opponents records from the year before, well, no one would have had it any harder, or easier. The only discrepancy between teams was who they played twice that season (in week 1 and in week 10). So in essence, the Gladiators had the harder schedule because, well, they played the Lynx twice, and the Mustangs had the second hardest because they played the Heat twice (both were Championship teams the year before).  So, it really depended on who you started and ended with

-          However, a few little categories were able to be made. I gave each away game an extra point due to away games being harder, and the reason why that worked is because some teams had 4 Home games, while others had 6 Home games. So that changed the math a little. Also,  I observed that since the four expansion teams had not played a game, they would only receive one point as a team, and another if the game was away. So if a team played 3 away games vs new teams that was 6 points (3 for the teams, and 3 because they were away), and another team only played 2 expansion teams away, that was 4, it made the numbers a little less stagnant

-          Yet no matter how you split it, the results came out wildly close, being that the schedule were essentially the exact same except for who you played in week 10. Yet, when you look at how it came out, and the results of the season, one can see that the formula worked, with one very notable exception (The Renegades, yet they were perhaps the most injury riddled team last year. Also, along with that, thier 2-time team was the Rage, and that proves my point that expansion teams are tricky.)

-          Lynx (2nd Easiest – Went 9-1, really didn’t have trouble until late in the season)

-          Heat (Tied for 2nd Easiest, Went 5-1 before injuries stole their momentum, that and the hard part of the schedule came about in the Cowboys and Rage)

-          Gladiators (Hardest Schedule – Went 0-5 to begin the year, entered a bit of an easier part of the schedule, won a few games, used that momentum to shock the Cougars, and got to 4-6)

-          Mustangs (Started 3-2, yet ran into the hard part of their schedule and suffered from there)

So, emboldened by those outcomes, the new year comes about and I went at it again. Only this time, I have 14 teams to play with (wildly different schedules), more expansion fun, and added to the formula throughout. So, without delay, here is the formula, step by step:

-          Each schedule was taken, and then their opponents wins from last season was set next to it. For Expansion teams, this number was set to 0, and I’ll explain where their number came from next. After totaling up the win total, I would get that teams Unadjusted Schedule difficulty (first Bold number), based solely on opponents with records from last year. Many people say this is the best way to do it, yet I tend to think differently about that (second Bold number is the Adjusted Number). For one, not every team plays the same amount of expansion teams. The least played by any team is 2, while the highest is 5(!). So naturally, a team with 5 expansions on their roster would have a lower number, but not necessarily an easier schedule. That’s where step two comes in.

-          Last season, we had 4 expansion teams, and their records were 3-7,4-6,4-6 and 8-2. My last season formula was off primarily because nobody truly knows how good an new team will be. So, to combat this, I took the most common win number from the 2009 expansion teams, and used that (4). Naturally, come seasons end, some may have more wins, some sadly less, yet I think that 4 is a good baseline and a wise average to use (in Blue).

-          Another Formula addition is an extra point was given to each team that made the playoffs last year. Why that happened was basically because of the Gladiator/Gator equation I ran into. The Gladiators made the playoffs, the Gators didn’t, yet they both had 4 wins and in my formula, they would both equal the same. Yet, for some reason, it just seemed wrong to not hold a playoff team in higher standard, so that’s the reason for the extra point all the way around (in Green).

-          The next piece of the equation was the Championship teams, which were the best teams last year. If you have one of them on your schedule, that’s an extra point, each (in Red).

-          The last one, which I won’t be able to finalize until the schedule itself it done, is the Home and Away part of the difficulty rating. Last year, I gave just 1 point for each away game and left it at that, however, that was when not everybody had 5 away games. This season looks to be pretty even, so the Home/Away quotient will be different. It will still be 1 point each, but each game that is played away in a row will result in an extra point, because long absences from home can be more difficult. So if Team A plays 3 games away in a row, the first one will be worth 1 point, the second week 2 points, and the final week 3 points. The reason for this is because we have some DRIVES coming up this year (if a Milwaukee team has to travel to Lake County, isn’t that a stressful situation?), so a team should be noted of that in the strength of schedule.

So, while the tally is almost complete, we will have to wait till the Home/Away sched pops out to have the final pre-season tally. After the season, I will change it all around using everyones 2010 records, and find out what the true strength of schedule was. Just to see how close I am.

For you formula guys out there, here it is (minus Home/Away)

(2009 W's) + (Playoff teams) + (Expansion Teams x 4) + (Championship Teams) = 2010 initial Strength of Schedule

The higher the number, the harder the Schedule, so there.

Without further explanation, here are my findings (hardest to easiest):

The Premier (62):

                Fox Valley is an Expansion cut from the Lynx, and they get hit right away; the Heat and Lynx 1-2 punch will indoctrinate them into the league well. The Premier has 5 games against playoff teams from last season, and 3 games against new teams. They play both the Lynx and Cowboys during the season.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                Even though the Heat/Lynx start is fun, the 2nd half of the season has the Rage, Cougars and Cowboys is store. Finishing strong is everything in this league, and the final two weeks will decide a lot

The Cougars (60):

                Last season’s comeback team finds itself in a rough spot schedule wise. Their first half of the year isn’t bad at all, yet the second half becomes tricky. The Cougars have 5 games against playoff teams and 3 games against expansion clubs

Hardest stretch of the season:

                As soon as the second half of the season rears its head, it’s make or break time. The Heat,  rage, Lynx and Gladiators, all in a row, will provide a trying end of the season schedule.

The Phoenix (59):

                The Cougars begin the season, the Cowboys end it, what happens in the middle is where the season will be won, or lost. However, the middle is where things really get tough. The Phoenix play 5 games against playoff teams, and only 2 new squads.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Phoenix have the Lynx in Week 3, the sudo Lynx (Premier) in Week 4, and the Rage in Week 5. THEN they play the game everyone seems to be waiting for in week 6 against the Sabers. Luckily, there is a bye week after that.

The Heat (59):

                The Heat will again need to get off to a good start, as the middle of the schedule could end their chances early in they don’t do well in their first two weeks. The Heat plays 5 playoff teams, and 2 new teams

Hardest stretch of the season:

                Rage in Week 3, then the Scorpions, who could be anything, expansion teams are murky. Then, week 5 brings the Lynx, Cougars, Cowboys and Gladiators all in a row

The Warriors (59):

                The Warriors will welcome their first season by saying hello to…the Rage. Welcome to the GFL.  After that they will have to devise a winning streak to keep up with the second half of their year. The Warriors will play 5 playoff teams, and 2 new squads.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Warriors schedule is sneaky in it’s strength, not really seeming all that bad. Yet a Cowboys, Lynx, Gators, Heat, Sabers final 5 could really knock them out if they aren’t careful.

The Gladiators (57):

                The Gladiators are like so many other teams who will have to make something out of an easier first than second half schedule. The only big name in the first 5 games is the Rage, in week 2, followed by the Sabers, in week 4. The Gladiators will play 4 playoff teams, and 4 new teams.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                So many stretches involve the Lynx, but that’s just how good they are. Starting in week 6, their schedule takes a turn with the Lynx, Phoenix, Heat and Cougars in a row, finishing up with the Scorpions

The Lynx (56):

                Almost laughing at the Lynx’s schedule early on (really, the Champs get three expansion teams in a row?), one would have to tip their hat to the schedule makers for turning the rest of the schedule into a much harder affair. 5 games against playoff teams, 4 against expansion clubs

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Cowboys, Heat and Gladiators will make up Weeks 3-5, and the Cougars, Nighthawks and Rage will finish out their schedule.

The Nighthawks (54):

                The Nighthawks early schedule is their only real difficult stretch, managing to only play 3 2009 playoff teams and 5 expansion clubs.  5 of their last 8 games are against new squads.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                Cowboys, Cougars, Premier; Weeks 1-3. After that, if they get through even with one win, they should have a say in the playoff race.

The Rage (53):

                The Rage, much like the Nighthawks, manage to miss prolonged stretches of difficulty, at least when compared to 2009 numbers. The week 3 matchup with the Heat will be a rematch of last seasons fight for first in their division, yet the early schedule should provide them with a winning record. The Rage has 4 games against playoff teams, 4 against new teams.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Cougars come calling in week 7, followed by the Scorpions, Sabers and Lynx. The game vs the Lynx could be plainly for playoff seating.

The Wolves (53):

                The Wolves, much like the Warriors, get their first game as a franchise against…the Lynx. And for an encore, the Cowboys! However, unlike the Warriors, the schedule lets up considerably after that.  The Wolves get 3 games against playoff squads, and 4 against fellow expansion clubs.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Lynx and Cowboys…yeah. There is a spot in the 2nd half against the Gators, Sabers and Premier, but nothing comes close to the first two games.

The Sabers (52):

                An early game against the Heat (week 2), followed by the Gators and Gladiators makes for an interesting stretch, but not exactly murderers row. The Sabers play three 2009 playoff teams and 4 expansion teams

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Cowboys and the Rage in weeks 8 and 9 make for a nasty little end of the year trial, it’s bookended by games with the Warriors and Wolves.

The Scorpions (51):

                The Scorpions will be welcomed into the league by the GFL’s founding franchise, and then the Scorpions destiny is in their hands. Two straight games against fellow expansion teams leaves the Scorpions as an enigma. The Scorpions play 4 playoff teams, 3 expansion teams, and don’t play either the Lynx or Cowboys

Hardest stretch of the season:

                Heat, Cowboys, Nighthawks, Premier and the Rage, starting in week 4.  The Gators and Gladiators after that could decide whether they make it to the playoffs or not.

The Cowboys (51):

                Seeing the 20092nd place squad here was not a joyful occurance, but sometimes that’s how it goes. By the end of Week 4, as long as they are 2-2, they could easily be a high playoff seed. The Cowboys play three 2009 playoff teams, and 5 expansion teams

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Cougars in Week 3 followed by the Lynx in Week 4. Two games against new franchises later they play the Heat.

The Gators (50):

                The only team to play neither the Lynx or Cowboys may have a great chance at making the playoffs, as long as they just take care of business. There is a minor rough patch in the middle of the year, yet throughout, it never gets overwhelming. The Gators play 4 playoff teams, and 4 new squads.

Hardest stretch of the season:

                The Sabers in week 3 starts off the mini-bulge, with games vs. the Rage and Cougars after that. Even if the Gators are 2-3 after that, the 2nd half of the schedule is ripe.

As I said before, this list is without the Home/Away schedule, which may change things more drastically than many would realize. Also, this will be compared to how the season plays out, as I will at the end of the year redo everything with 2010 info and see how the predictions work out.

When the Home/Away schedule comes out, there will be an update

Observations from Two Feet Away - Initial Schedule

By Adam Knoll | December 18, 2009 at 12:35 PM EST | No Comments

Okay, so it’s that time that I personally have been waiting for, the schedule to come out and to see exactly who we will be playing, and where. Home/Away doesn’t matter as much to me (travel excluded), because sometimes it’s not who you play, but when you play them.

Having two byes this season will eliminate a lot of stretches of utter devastation. The longest stretch is four games in a row, split by the July 4th holiday. For those of you who haven’t seen the schedule, I’ll put it up dor you:

Cougars

Gators

(bye)

Lynx

Premier

Rage

Sabers

(bye)

Gladiators

Nighthawks

Wolves

Cowboys

There ya go. When looking at the schedule, a few things immediately come to mind:

-          The middle portion of the schedule is a killer. The two top seeds from last year’s season (Lynx and Rage) and the Premier, basically the Lynx 1.1. All that before we get to a matchup with our old friends the Sabers (Storm), who get the advantage of playing us right after that gauntlet. In the Lynx-Premier-Rage corollary, if 2 or more of those end up being away, that’s a lot of driving. We will see how that goes.

-          We start the season by playing the Cougars, who are always dangerous. The Gators were much improved towards the end of last season, and it would figure to be the same again. Seeing as how the middle part of the schedule rounded out, it’s imperative that we start fast, or at least, not have trouble out of the gate.

-          There are 8 playoff teams this year, so more than half the league will make it, however, getting the Cowboys on the last day will judge a lot of things come next August. The Gladiators (Strong Defense), the Nighthawks (Wide spread offense) and the Wolves (an enigma) figure to give the last portion of the schedule a little spice.

-          As I theorized last month, I thought we would end up with the Sabers, Gladiators, Heat and Scorpions on our schedule, based on proximity. I went 2/4, as the Rage and the Gators made our schedule over the Heat and the Scorpions. With the Rage being 8-2 and the Gators being 4-6 last year, it would appear that the schedule is a little more on the difficult side than having a 6-4 Heat team and a fellow expansion team. However, nothing will be known for sure until the season starts and teams start unfolding.

-          We play our non-conference games in a huge bunch in the middle of the season. In a 6 week period, we play all of the 4 teams not in our conference, leaving pockets of Conference play that could really make or break us. The last three games on the schedule will be huge as the playoffs will then be in sight.

Observations from Two Feet Away (Dec 15th)

By Adam Knoll | December 15, 2009 at 05:12 PM EST | No Comments

These are long days, indeed. I miss practice, I miss teaching, I miss throwing the ball over the outstretched arm of a defender…hell, I miss getting picked (yet just barely). For the record, I hate the winter, It’s cold, people don’t like to go outside, it’s hard to throw/catch a ball, you can’t learn anything when your shivering, and you don’t get exercise. Not only that, but it’s too far away to really get amped for the next season, yet preparations need to be made with all urgency. Sheesh…

All in all….I love owning a team. I really do.

I enjoy doing things a majority of guys don’t. Put me in a room with a dry erase board and 3-4-10 guys who like talking schemes…I’m good to go. However, a good percentage of guys don’t enjoy that. Our meetings so far have been successful, yet you can tell, some guys like doing book work, some don’t. I just hope the guys who don’t have a high football IQ, come March they are going to be so lost….

This December I predicted either the slowest month, or right next to it, and so far it hasn’t failed to disappoint. The practice on the 26th will probably attract a good number of guys, possibly just because they want to run around again. I will say this again, if you know of people who want to try out, the 26th is a day they can come. Try to send them online to fill out an application first, so I know who is what, but I’ll have forms with me as well. Just remember, we are looking for a certain type of character in our players. Send us someone you feel would fit our prototype.

January will come around soon, and right away the New Year will kick off with a fundraiser. We hope to have as many as 2-3 a month, as we try to gain funds for the upcoming year. In addition to this we need to order our jerseys by March 1st, no later. So, again, player fees are huge between now and the end of February.  If anyone wasn’t aware, we have a full uniform preview in our Team Info page. The jerseys we are ordering will be black with our special blue/green inserts. Helmet logos will be a lettered WP, I fear our unique logo would be a custom printers nightmare. We are kicking around the idea of second uniforms, but as of right now, the black ones should suffice.

For those of you still hazy on how the March scheduling will be done, basically we will have a series of meetings and study sessions directly prior to the March tryout. These will be a way that guys can get revamped for the year. About a week prior to the tryout we will probably hold a skills and fundamental session, for those who want to work on technique and get everything down. The tryouts will be a two day event, in which the first day will be combine like at first, where we get all rough info including height and weight and other basics. Then there will be short meetings, to go over general schemes and expectations. Then the true tryout will start by dividing into groups probably by positions) and going through skills. The second day will be a more intense day, with a true skill workout followed by Offense vs Defense. Everything will be filmed.

The day after, the owners will meet, and go over everyone they saw during the entire winter and tryouts. It is this day, that cuts will be made, and the standing roster will be set. After this day, if another player wants to join us, it will require 4 of the 5 owners to sign off on the player. This will ensure that we don’t have a rampantly changing roster all the way through the pre-season/season. The roster will probably top out around 30.

Immediately after this, we enter our season practice schedule. We take a week off between the last tryout day and our first practice, but the following Sunday we go straight to work. Helmets will enter practice a few weeks later, with the team going pads a few weeks after that. It may be dull now, but it wont be soon.