Wilmot Phoenix

GFL: The 2011 Strength of Schedule Broken Down

By Adam Knoll | February 27, 2011 at 11:17 AM EST | No Comments

While in the past few years the Pre-Season Strength of Schedule has been a good indicator of overall difficulty, it is important to note that the numbers in this report will change after all the games have played. In September, we will revisit this study to report what 2011's true Strength of Schedule turned out to be. However, as mentioned, past studies on the subject have turned out to be a good indicator over a full season. Take into account the numbers from last season:

Here is the 2011 Pre-Season Strength of Schedule broken down into categories:

Notes:

- It would seem that the Sabers and Gladiators have the lowest score due to the fact that they have no games against either of the 2010 Championship contenders. Additionally, both play only three playoff teams and only play one game out of conference. The Rampage also play no 2010 championship teams, yet equal that out with six total games against 2010 playoff teams.

- The Cowboys play both championship contenders from last season, yet those are their only games against playoff teams from last season, as they play no games out of conference. When adding in that the Conference will have four playoff teams, and the Chaos and Phoenix will have better 2011 records than they did last season, expect the Cowboys' number to rise after the year ends.

- The Cougars play only three playoff teams and have three away games, which would make them appear as early favorite for Conference Champion as the road would appear to be the simplest. However, thier main challenger, the Rage, scored only a point higher in the schedule, playing one more playoff team, and having one more away game.

- Although the Mayhem will play all of their games on the road, their schedule number came out quite low due to having to play only three games against playoff opponents, only one championship team and play the rest of their matches against 2011 unknowns.

- The battle for the West division crown between the Lynx and the Premier seems to be quite even. The division will most likely be decided those two fridays in which they play each other, provided a challenger does not make themselves known.

- The Hitmen, Scorpions and Maniacs all have the highest scores mainly to the fact that they play more than six 2010 payoff games, which scored an extra point in the rankings despite 2010 overall record. It would be fair to assume their overall number will be lower after the season ends.

- While the American Conference does indeed boast the top three scoring teams, they also score the lowest two. When compared, the American Conference total number (all the teams added up) equals 465, while the National total is 472. The biggest differences in the Conferences is that both 2010 Championship teams reside in the National Conference, while 4 of the 7 playoff teams from last year were in the American Conference. The National Conference hold three teams with eight wins or more last season, while the American Conference has two that had seven or more. It is clear that if Janesville did not defect, the margin between the two Conferences would have been much higher.

GFL: North Division Strength of Schedule

By Adam Knoll | February 26, 2011 at 02:52 PM EST | No Comments

Central Division Strength of Schedule

By Adam Knoll | February 25, 2011 at 08:00 PM EST | No Comments

* The Strength of Scheule Formula

(2010 W's) + (Expansion Teams x 4) + (Playoff teams) + (Away Games)  + (Championship Teams) = 2011 initial Strength of Schedule

-----

The Central Division will be an area to watch this season as the Kenosha Cougars look to make it to the playoffs for the 5th time in their 5 year development. The Cougars are in the drivers seat, once again striving to nail down both the divisional crown, as well as the Conference title. Standing in their way is the Racine Gladiators, who have yet to miss the playoffs since their inception two years ago. However, gaining steam among the GFL ranks, the Racine Rampage are looking to make the cross-town rivarly messy and chaotic, while eying the divisions top spot. Fellow newcomer, the Milwaukee Hitmen, will need to traverse a dangerous schedule to gain respect, and make a push for the playoffs.

Kenosha Cougars: (25) + (4x5) + (4) + (3) + (1) = 53

What can look at first like an easier schedule, the Cougars do indeed have a few tests to deal with this season. Starting in Week 2, the Gladiators, Rampage, and Rage set the tone for the season. If the Cougars can beat their two main foes early on, the sky may be the limit. In Week;s 8 and 9, the Cougars will play the cross town rival Sabers and 3-time defending Champion Lake Shore Lynx, in what is sure to be the game everyone is watching that week. However, the Cougars do have seven home games, and a nice chance to put the division away before the mid-season point is reached/

Racine Gladiators: (22) + (4x5) + (3) + (5) = 50

In what could be the season's easiest pre-season schedule, the Gladiators only play two teams that finished above .500 last season, the Rage and Cougars. Playing five seperate expansion games, while only playing one other team that made the 2010 playoffs, could be the Gladiators ticket to a playoff berth. However, if a few of the expansion teams prove their mettle, and some 2nd year franchises get on track, this schedule could very easily become trecherous.

Racine Rampage: (37) + (3x4) + (6) + (5) = 60

The first thing that comes to mind when looking at the Rampages schedule is that they play six games against 2010 playoff teams. Yet with a strong outlook so far, the Rampage are poised to challenge the reigning Cougars for the top spot, and that journey will begin in week 3 when Kenosha comes to town. However, two week later, the Rampage begin a streak against the Sabers, Rage and Gladiators that could well determine if the rampage will be in range for a division title, or rather working toward a lower seed in the playoffs.

Milwaukee Hitmen: (46) + (8) + (7) + (5) + (1) = 67

During their 2011 schedule, the Hitmen will play seven 2010 playoff teams and only two fellow expansion teams. The Hitmen will play the Cougars twice, the Rage, and the Premier, all teams that had seven or more wins last year. It is important for the Hitmen to weather that storm and try to focus on the rest of their schedule to try and piece together a playoff caliber season. Thier best shot may start in week 2 when in a five week stretch the Hitmen will play four teams that are either expansion clubs or had less than 4 wins last season. However, directly afterword, the Hitmen will play the Cougars in week 7, and the Premier in Week 9.

GFL: West Division Stength of Schedule

By Adam Knoll | February 24, 2011 at 08:48 PM EST | No Comments

* The Strength of Schedule Formula

(Opponents' 2010 W's) + (Amount of games against 2010 Playoff teams) + (amount of games against 2011 Expansion Teams x 4) + (amount of games against 2010 championship teams) + (Amount of away games) = 2011 Pre-season Strength of Schedule

------

The West Division is home to both of last seasons Championship contenders, the Fox Valley Premier and the now three-time Champion Lake Shore Lynx. These two teams, which used to be one, played to a one point decision during 2010’s regular season, which makes the two times they are supposed to meet up in 2011 all the more intriguing. The second year Wilmot Phoenix will look to build on a feisty, if not ultimately successful 2010 campaign by trying to gain a foothold among the Conferences elite teams. The fourth team to round out the division is the Milton Mayhem, a late addion tor the GFL, taking over the Janesville Nighthawks schedule, who fled the GFL for another league last month. The season will be a challenge for the Mayhem as every single game for them will be on the road.

 Lynx   (39) +     (3x4) + (3) + (4) + (2) =60          

            The beginning of the season will provide a perfect opportunity for the Lynx to gain some ground on the rest of the division. Between weeks 1 and 6, the Lynx play only one team that had more than 2 wins last season. Their first matchup with the Premier in Week 3 could be a matchup between two unbeatens for an early stranglehold on the division. Starting in Week 7, the Lynx play the Cowboys, Premier and Cougars in a row, giving them a late season challenge for the Conference’s top seed.

 Premier  (34) + (4x4) + (4) + (4) + (2) = 60                                 

            Like the Lynx, the Premier play only one team in their first five weeks that had a winning record last season. However, after that come the Cowboys in Week 6, the Lynx in Week 8 and the Rage in Week 10. The Premier will play the Lynx and Rage away in those late games, and they could have a major impact upon both the American and National Conference. It goes without saying that the two matchups with the Lynx will provide much of the drama at the top of the division.

Phoenix  (35) + (4x4) + (5) + (4) + (2) = 62

            If the Phoenix are still breathing after Week 4, there may be some playoff hopes for this second year squad. Opening their season with a home game against the Premeir, the Phoenix get to hop on down to Libertyville to face the Lynx in Week 2. After a game with the unknown Mayhem, the Cowboys will come calling in Week 4, and this has all the makings for a poor start. However, four straight games afterword against three expansion teams and the Chaos will provide some hope before they finish their schedule with matchups against the Gladiators and Sabers.

Mayhem  (27)    + (3x4) + (3) + (10) + (1) = 53

            Although their overall number ended up being pretty low, the Mayhem may have the most difficult schedule in the league if you factor in all the travel they will be doing. Yet when looking past all the road trips, the Mayhem’s schedule actually has a pretty decent outlook. After starting their season against last season’s #8 see the Kenosha Sabers; their only heavy games will come against the Premier and Cowboys, as the rest of their schedule holds nothing more than seven games against either poor 2010 teams or expansion franchises.

GFL: South Division Strength of Schedule

By Adam Knoll | February 23, 2011 at 06:13 PM EST | No Comments

* The Strength of Schedule Formula:

(Opponents' 2010 W's) + (Amount of games against 2010 Playoff teams) + (amount of games against 2011 Expansion Teams x 4) + (amount of games against 2010 championship teams) + (Amount of away games) = 2011 Pre-season Strength of Schedule

-----

The South Division will be contained to itself this year, being the only division to play no inter-conference games. This will make the overall strength of schedule very similar for all teams, as each team will play almost the same schedule. This division is headed by the Lake County Cowboys, a founding member of the GFL, and the team most will pick to win this division. The second year Chicago Chaos is looking to gain steam in the right direction, while two new expansion teams, the Chicago Titans and the Chicago Cyclones, will look to get thier feet wet in a stacked American Conference.

Cowboys: (22) + (5x4) + (2) + (5) + (2) = 51

The Cowboys will open up thier schedule with five straight games against either expansion teams, or teams in thier second season. It is not untill week 6 when thier schedule gets quite heavy with back to back games against the Premier and Lynx, followed by a gmae with the up and coming Chaos. A 4-1 start is not out of the realm of possibility, yet if the Cowboys are 3-2 going into thier toughest stretch, the division could get tight. The Cowboys finish thier schedule with games against the Titans and Cyclones.

Chaos: (34) + (5x4) + (4) + (4) + (2) = 64

Right off the bat we will see if the Chaos are a viable candidate for the division crown. They did not go quietly last season to the Cowboys, and they will need another uplifting game to solidify themselves. Starting in Week 2, the Chaos have 3 straight games against expansion opponents giving themselves time to build up before running into the Premier, Lynx and Phoenix in weeks 5-7. The Chaos may make or break thier season in Week 8 with a rematch against the Cowboys. If the Chaos are at less than .500 after that, it may be hard to reach the playoffs.

Titans: (38) + (3x4) + (4) + (5) + (2) = 61

The first year Titans will get thier first look of the season against the Cyclones, which will be a precursor to a matchup with the Cowboys in Week 2. The Titans will hardly get a chance to rest as weeks 3-6 features games against the Chaos, Premier, Lynx and Phoenix. If the Titans can hold firm during that spell, they may be able to gain some steam before meeting up with the Cowboys again in Week 9

Cyclones: (38) + (3x4) + (4) + (5) + (2) = 61

The Cyclones get the largest buildup before a game with the Cowboys; this will give them time to gel before thier test against the South Divisions best team. Directly after that, the Cyclones will play the Lynx and Phoenix in weeks 4 & 5, and the Premier in Week 7. The Cowboys will be heading into town in Week 10, normally a week that determines playoff berths.